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Northbrook’s Early Voter Turnout and What It Could Mean

Northbrook’s Early Voter Turnout and What It Could Mean

If you read nothing else, read this:

It’s not too late to cast your ballot.

Early voting at Village Hall continues:

  • Sunday, March 30 from 10:00 AM to 4:00 PM
  • Monday, March 31 from 9:00 AM to 5:00 PM

Election Day is Tuesday, April 1. Polls are open from 6:00 AM to 7:00 PM.

Just a reminder: Village Hall is not a voting precinct on Election Day. To find your polling place, enter your address at: https://www.cookcountyclerkil.gov/elections/your-voter-information

We’re entering the final stretch before the April 1 Village of Northbrook election, and the early voting numbers are offering some interesting signals.

Northbrook has nearly 30,000 registered voters. In 2021, when we last had a contested Village President race, just 7,371 total votes were cast—less than a quarter of the electorate at the time. As of now, early voting is outpacing that election, and it’s worth watching where we might land this time around.

In 2021, there were 3,520 early votes cast. At this same point—12 days into early voting—2,377 people had already voted. This year, we’re ahead of that pace, with 3,194 votes already cast. That’s 817 more early voters than the same point four years ago.

The surge in early participation this time around was especially strong in the first week, though the second week is beginning to trail 2021’s momentum. Still, based on how voting picked up in the final few days last time, we can make a few informed projections.

If turnout slows slightly from the 2021 pace, we could finish in the low 4000s. If it follows the same pattern as 2021, early vote totals may land in the mid to high 4000s. And if we see a strong finish driven by late interest or weekend mobilization, early voting could climb to nearly 5,000 ballots.

But early voting is just part of the equation. In 2021, 3,851 votes were cast on Election Day. What happens this year depends on how early voting interacts with same-day turnout. If early voting simply siphons off what would have been Election Day voters, total turnout may land somewhere similar to 2021. If it holds steady and Election Day follows the same pattern as four years ago, turnout could push into the mid to high 8000s. And if early voting is a leading indicator of broader engagement, we could be looking at a turnout closer to 10,000 ballots cast.

It’s important to remember: the last contested Village President election before 2021 was in 2009. That means we’re working with just one relevant reference point when it comes to voter turnout in a competitive local race. With only a single data point, we’re navigating without a clear pattern. These projections are more like educated speculation than evidence-based forecasting.

One factor clearly driving voters to the polls this year is the presence of the District 27 and District 28 school referendums. These ballot measures are mobilizing a segment of the community that may not always participate in spring municipal elections, and that energy could influence other races on the ballot as well—even if there’s no clear alignment between referendum voters and specific candidates.

That said, I can’t help but suspect that a higher turnout this year probably favors the challengers. Historically, the Northbrook Caucus has benefited from low turnout and many uncontested elections. So if more voters show up—especially newer or previously disengaged ones—that could shift the dynamic. Of course, this is just a hunch, not a formal analysis. But based on what we’ve seen in past cycles, it feels like a reasonable one.

As for what increased turnout means, that’s not always easy to interpret. In national politics, higher turnout often helps challengers—especially when voters are driven by dissatisfaction. Locally, it’s more nuanced. A larger electorate doesn’t automatically favor one side—it often comes down to which candidates or campaigns do a better job of activating voters. Who shows up isn’t just a reflection of general interest; it’s a reflection of who made the effort to reach them, engage them, and give them a reason to care. Turnout isn’t just about how many people vote—it’s about who mobilizes them, and why.

And while this election may not have matched 2021 in terms of volume or public spectacle, it didn’t exactly stay above the fray. The first negative messaging came early in the cycle from an external political group—an aggressive tone that may have caught some voters off guard. Ironically, it may have helped spark greater engagement from people who weren’t initially paying attention. And as we approach Election Day, the negativity has not quieted—it has reached a crescendo.

Still, if there’s any silver lining, it’s that people are paying attention. And that matters. Democracy doesn’t just happen every four years—it starts right here, where we live. Local government works best when more people take part in shaping it.

Personally, I’d love to see us reach 15,000 ballots cast—still barely half of our registered voters, but more than double what we saw in 2021. With all of the nonsense in this election, it will hopefully send a message to whoever is elected that Northbrook is finally paying attention and wants someone to unite the community.

If you haven’t voted yet, make a plan. If you have, ask twenty friends if they’re ready. The decisions we make locally matter—and this is our chance to make them together.